An Investigation Into Forex Market Correlations With Other Markets
Written by Author on April 8th, 2009Trading in the market does not happen in a vacuum. This mantra applies to all investment markets; the usual suspects like stocks and commodities, but also Forex. Events come in many shapes and sizes. So also do the effects that they exert on the markets. However, what we want to understand is how the events and movements in other markets can affect movements in the Forex market. Insight into this phenomenon will help people to learn how to trade forex better.
Big Investment people always talk about diversifying your portfolio. The idea is not to put all your eggs in one basket so you can keep going in case on thing doesn’t work out so well. There is also the idea of hedging. Basically, it involves trading in the opposite direction e.g. buying another asset when you have a sell position opened, to smooth out the risk. on the face of it, it would seem counter-intuitive. It might seem that any gains made would also be cancelled because the loss on the opposite trade would be higher as well. However, smart traders try to short off the losing trade once it becomes more apparent the direction that the trade is heading.
The point here is that the ideas above can be applied to trading Forex, even without directly owning assets or accounts in the other markets. A simple example is the correlation between Oil and the Canadian Dollar. Canada is a large producer of Oil. It’s the number one base of their economy. They also export a lot of this commodity to the United States. When Oil is on the rise, it is good for Canada, as much of Canada’s Economy depends on it. The end result is, you can trade the US Dollar/Canadian Dollar currency pair armed with this information.
This can be applied to a lot of other forex pairs. You can also combine the application to profitable effect. Rising Oil in some conditions can be better for the Euro and not so good for the Dollar. Interest rates in Japan have been very low historically, so when investor want to put their money to work, US Equities are favored as there is a higher rate of return. Thus the USDJPY currency pair tends to rise in value, as the Yen is sold in favor of the dollar.
You have to be wary though, as this relationships don’t always stay the same. There are times when it just won’t hold, when more important factors are at work, such as in a time of Economic strife when predictability in the markets reduces and everyone is afraid. These correlations will often reverse at a moments notice without much warning. . This was the case in January 2009, when Gold and the Dollar began to move up at the same time. Not everyone is fond of these interrelationships. Some people claim they are of little value, and do not apply. However, they are can be of value. As a Forex Trader, you have to make use of all tools that come your way. I think there are times when it is best to go with the established trends. Like any other situation, the trader has to be constantly vigilant and pay attention to the surroundings. As long as you manage your risks accordingly, you will be able to stay in good shape, regardless of what happens.
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